Using Computational Agents to Design Participatory Social Simulations

In social science, the role of stakeholders is increasing in the development and use of simulation models. Their participation in the design of agent-based models (ABMs) has widely been considered as an efficient solution to the validation of this particular type of model. Traditionally, "agents" (as basic model elements) have not been concerned with stakeholders directly but via designers or role-playing games (RPGs). In this paper, we intend to bridge this gap by introducing computational or software agents, implemented from an initial ABM, into a new kind of RPG, mediated by computers, so that these agents can interact with stakeholders. This interaction can help not only to elicit stakeholders' informal knowledge or unpredicted behaviours, but also to control stakeholders' focus during the games. We therefore formalize a general participatory design method using software agents, and illustrate it by describing our experience in a project aimed at developing agent-based social simulations in the field of air traffic management.Participatory Social Simulations, Agent-Based Social Simulations, Computational Agents, Role-Playing Games, Artificial Maieutics, User-Centered Design

Monitoring activities of satellite data processing services in real-time with SDDS Live Monitor

This work describes Live Monitor, the monitoring subsystem of SDDS - an automated system for space experiment data processing, storage, and distribution created at SINP MSU. Live Monitor allows operators and developers of satellite data centers to identify errors occurred in data processing quickly and to prevent further consequences caused by the errors. All activities of the whole data processing cycle are illustrated via a web interface in real-time. Notification messages are delivered to responsible people via emails and Telegram messenger service. The flexible monitoring mechanism implemented in Live Monitor allows us to dynamically change and control events being shown on the web interface on our demands. Physicists, whose space weather analysis models are functioning upon satellite data provided by SDDS, can use the developed RESTful API to monitor their own events and deliver customized notification messages by their needs.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

A Scientific Workflow System for Satellite Data Processing with Real-Time Monitoring

This paper provides a case study on satellite data processing, storage, and distribution in the space weather domain by introducing the Satellite Data Downloading System (SDDS). The approach proposed in this paper was evaluated through real-world scenarios and addresses the challenges related to the specific field. Although SDDS is used for satellite data processing, it can potentially be adapted to a wide range of data processing scenarios in other fields of physics.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, Mathematical Modeling and Computational Physics 2017 (MMCP 2017

Fama- French Five-factor model: Evidence from Viet Nam

The study investigates the explanatory power of the Five-factor model. I will find out: Does market risk fully explain the average stock returns? Whether the Fama – French five-factor model has the ability to capture the average stock returns in Viet Nam Stock market during the period from 2011 to 2015 and whether Investment factor and Profitability factor are relevant. The data in question is from 1/1/2011 to 31/12/2015. The Data included all listed stocks on Ha Noi Stock Exchange (HNX) and Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE)– the two stock exchanges of Viet Nam. The reason for choosing the period in question is to avoid the impact of financial crisis and real estate bubble in Viet Nam in 2008 and 2009. Results show that the explanatory power of CAPM, three-factor model, and five-factor model are quite disappointing. The five-factor model has the highest R-square, but it is only 34 percent. From CAPM model to five-factor model, the R-square increases gradually and insignificantly. Two added variables (RMW and CMA) are not significant in explaining the stock returns. RMW and CMA are insignificant in capturing the variation of other factors. The results also indicate that RMW and CMA largely absorb the effects of other factors. The five-factor model has superior explanatory power over the large size portfolio, high book to market ratio portfolio, robust profitability portfolio, and aggressive investment portfolio.fi=Opinnäytetyö kokotekstinä PDF-muodossa.|en=Thesis fulltext in PDF format.|sv=Lärdomsprov tillgängligt som fulltext i PDF-format

Forest governance and economic values of forest ecosystem services in the northwest region of Vietnam

Forest ecosystems provide valuable services to humanity but have been continually undervalued and degraded. This problem is a result of inadequate institutional arrangements for forest governance (FG). This study aims to assess the effects of alternative FG regimes on the provision and the associated economic values of forest ecosystem services (FESs) in Vietnam. This study argues for the framework that integrates the ecosystem service approach to the assessment of FG regimes. Three alternative FG scenarios: state-based; community-based; and individual-based. For each FG scenario, the changes in forest land use/land cover (LULC) were mapped based on land suitability analysis and transition likelihood for the period 2010−2020. The resulting maps were used as inputs into the InVEST model (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs). The outputs of the InVEST model are the quantity of three specific FESs: carbon storage/sequestration, water yield for hydropower production and reduction of sediment load to reservoirs. Particular valuation methods were applied: the social cost of carbon was used to estimate the economic value of carbon storage/sequestration; the replacement cost method was applied for valuing the reduction of sediment yield; and the residual valuation method was used for valuing water yield for hydropower generation. The study shows that FG plays an important role in the provision of FESs and, accordingly, in determining the economic values of FESs. Particularly, it indicates the aggregated annual value of the three services is likely to increase under all scenarios, but it is significantly under the state-based and the community-based scenarios. Based on the findings, I argue that community-based FG is an alternative FG regime that can effectively replace the current state-based regime